Consumer spending is likely to become much more dependent on jobs and confidence by the third quarter, ... If labor markets have not turned, boosting confidence by then, the risk of a significant slowing in consumer spending will be very high.
The raises in interest rates will reduce the willingness and ability of consumers to continue their pace of borrowing. This is both directly -- through the cost of debt -- and indirectly -- because it's likely to slow house price appreciation.
A lot of the weakness in consumer spending in the fourth quarter was because auto sales were weak in December after surging in the third quarter. It's important to look beyond auto sales. At least for the first quarter, it's not going to take much for consumer spending to look good.