Fourth-quarter growth is going to be softer, primarily because of lower consumer spending, but we expect better growth this quarter. A major part of it is the sharp drop in auto sales, and we wouldn't expect to see that again.
While we still expect the housing market to cool gradually -- and the data over the past couple of quarters has been consistent with that view -- the February existing home sales number shows the considerable strength that is still in the residential sector.
We do think you're going to see a drop off in consumer spending in coming months. Part of the reason is workers are experiencing pain in their take-home pay. You're still seeing other areas of the economy kicking in. These will offset some of the negatives from lower consumer spending.