We need to find the level at which underlying physical demand will support gold. Until then, I wouldn't be comfortable with gold up here, because it's all investment and speculative money at the moment.
The outlook for most of the major gold mining companies is for static to lower production for 2006. With the new project pipeline in gold relatively empty and few major discoveries of gold made in the past decade, we do not expect this picture to change.
Base and precious metals are considerably above what we consider to be fair value - based on fundamental supply and demand factors - but events of the past two years have demonstrated that investment and speculative flows are very capable of lifting prices well beyond fundamental fair value.